Toronto Blue Jays
PITCHER HEALTH
Preseason 2026 injury analysis, durability risk profiles, and return timelines for the Toronto Blue Jays pitching rotation.
ROTATION OUTLOOK
Toronto's rotation features excellent durability with Cease and Gausman, but Shane Bieber's Tommy John recovery introduces significant uncertainty. The Blue Jays bet on Bieber returning to ace form in 2026.
KEY PITCHERS
Dylan Cease
RHP • #1 Starter
Injury History
Acquired via trade. Generally durable career. Few major injury setbacks.
Durability Risk Profile
Cease brings excellent durability to anchor Toronto's rotation. He's logged consistent innings throughout his career with minimal IL time.
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José Berríos
RHP • #2 Starter
Injury History
Workload concerns (200+ IP multiple seasons). Elbow inflammation (September 24, 2025). Projected for Opening Day 2026 but questionable.
Durability Risk Profile
Berríos carries high mileage from consistent 200+ inning seasons and suffered elbow inflammation late in 2025. While projected for Opening Day, the elbow issue adds durability concerns to his already heavy cumulative workload.
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Shane Bieber
RHP • #3 Starter
Injury History
Forearm fatigue (November 1, 2025). Projected IL, no timetable for return. Previous Tommy John surgery April 2024, rehab setback mid-2025. Traded to Blue Jays July 2025.
Durability Risk Profile
Bieber suffered a devastating forearm fatigue setback in November 2025, derailing his Tommy John recovery. With no timetable for return and projected to start 2026 on the IL, his availability is highly questionable. The forearm issue following TJ surgery is an ominous sign for his long-term durability.
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Kevin Gausman
RHP • #4 Starter
Injury History
Generally durable veteran. 200+ IP multiple seasons. Clean recent health.
Durability Risk Profile
Gausman has been remarkably consistent and healthy, logging big innings year after year. His durability makes him a cornerstone of Toronto's rotation.
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Bowden Francis
RHP • #5 Starter
Injury History
Tommy John surgery (February 2026). Projected IL, out for entire 2026 season. Previously had clean injury record through 2025.
Durability Risk Profile
Francis underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2026 and will miss the entire season. This is a devastating blow to Toronto's rotation depth after he showed promise as a reliable back-end starter in 2024-2025. Standard 12-14 month recovery timeline targets early 2027 return.
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